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3 important charts before the ECB

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Much controversy has aroused around the intentions of the Governing Council. The last conference has left an illusion, that ECB pursues a quick ending of an asset purchase program and normalization of a monetary policy by hiking the rates. The official appearances of key ECBs members and controlled leaks have put an end to the strengthening of EUR and reinforced demand for European bonds. Today Mario Draghi will eventually resolve doubts of market participants and will state that even though the normalization of policy is imminent, ECB will not hustle.

The economic revival advances as the composite PMI shows the highest reading for years. 


The macroeconomic data surprise index shows clearly, that economic revival in Q4 2016 has progressed much faster than expected. However, the recent series of macro data shows that economy ceased to surprise positively. 


The price pressure remains fragile. The core inflation YoY has touched the 2 years low, while the CPI has violently decelerated in March. 


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